Objective

This vignette is a selected analysis of the Voice referendum conducted in Australia during October 2023. While several factors may influence how people vote, this vignette aims to explore if there is a relationship between the level of educational attainment and voting patterns across Commonwealth Electoral Divisions.

Workflow

Data was gathered from two government sources: the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). Specific data was extracted from the latest ABS Census (2021) to identify the highest educational attainment level for individuals aged 18 years and older for each Commonwealth Electoral Division across Australian States and Territories. Voting results from the Voice referendum were sourced from the AEC for each Commonwealth Electoral Division. Data from these government sources were then merged into a dataset based on Commonwealth Electoral Divisions for analysis.

Results

1. Visualise Voice referendum result

Chart 1 summarises the results of the Voice referendum. The declared result for each Commonwealth Electoral Division is plotted on this interactive chart. The chart shows that the division of Melbourne, in Victoria, had the highest level of support for the Voice and one of the highest levels of educational attainment among its citizens in the country. In contrast, the divisions of Maranoa and Flynn in Queensland had the lowest levels of support for the Voice. Maranoa and Flynn were among the divisions with the lowest levels of educational attainment in Australia.

Note: Hover over points in Chart 1 to see electorates and the percentage of yes votes. Click on each State/Territory in the chart legend to remove or add States/Territories. This interactivity helps see the results of each State/Territory in isolation or comparing the results across selected States/Territories.

2. Explore the relationship between variables

Chart 1 shows a relationship between the level of educational attainment and the voting outcome across the Commonwealth Electoral Divisions. Chart 2 explores this association in further detail by showing the line of best fit and the correlation coefficient (R) between educational attainment and support for the Voice.

This analysis does not imply that every university-educated individual voted yes in the referendum or that every high school-educated individual voted no. Instead, on the whole, the level of educational attainment was an influence on voting patterns in the referendum across Commonwealth Electoral Divisions.

The charts show that in electorates where the majority of the population had attained a university degree, the vote was yes. The vote was mostly yes in electorates with a close to even distribution of university and high school educated citizens. However, in electorates where more than 70 per cent of the population had attained a high school education, the vote was no.

A negative correlation coefficient of R = -0.885 shows a strong association between educational attainment and support for the Voice. Conducted an independent statistical test to interpret and verify the strength of this association. The output of this test is tabled in Output 1.

Output 1


    Pearson's product-moment correlation

data:  High_School and Yes_PCT
t = -23.174, df = 149, p-value < 2.2e-16
alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
 -0.9151613 -0.8443644
sample estimates:
       cor 
-0.8847654 
    cor 
"large" 
(Rules: cohen1988)

Output 1 confirms a “large” effect size or a strongly correlated relationship between the variables level of educational attainment and level of support for the Voice.

In summary, while several factors may have influenced how the population voted, Chart 2 shows that in electorates where most citizens held higher educational attainment (university degree), support for the Voice was positive. Conversely, in electorates where most citizens had lower educational attainment (high school), support for the Voice was mainly negative. The Voice referendum did not carry.

Session information and package update 

## ─ Session info ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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##  date     2024-09-28
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